BRETT
I know I’m the one who’s taking the affirmative side to Yo’s counterpoint in this talking-heads debate.
But I’m going to hedge. Even though I’m arguing in favor of Super Bowl advertising, there are caveats. Lots of ‘em.
This is going to take a minute.
First, some context:
The Super Bowl is a funny beast. It’s the one time of the year when the world of advertising takes center stage in the American zeitgeist.
Well, maybe not center stage, since that’s the NFL itself, but at least one of the three rings in the circus.
As a result, ads and campaigns take on a larger-than-life quality, and not just in all the extra attention that goes along with the single most-viewed event of the year (by far) but also in what it does to marketers’ and creatives’ brains.
Everyone wants to have a SB spot.
They want to be able to talk about it to their bosses, their parents, or that girl who turned them down for the Junior Prom. I’m not saying why, but it starts with an E and ends with an O, with only one missing letter. You don’t have to be a Wordle savant to figure it out. As a result, it can make otherwise clear-eyed marketers get a little fuzzy with their vision.
I’ve been a party to putting half a dozen spots into the Big Game (would the NFL issue a cease-and-desist to a LinkedIn post?). Including the first of what is now over a dozen for one of the largest advertisers in the world, all the way to a brand and product I could name right now, and 99.99% of you would have no recollection of, so I’m not just talking hypothetically.
I’ve seen the insanity it can inflict. Although, anything that costs $7MM (gross, tbf) for a :30 of “air” (cue Billy Crystal in City Slickers) is not entirely logical, by definition.
There is angst and drama throughout the entire process.
So, against the backdrop of all that human drama, it’s essential to keep a few things in mind before the emotions get the better of the situation.
The caveats:
1. Do you really have the budget to do this?
Is this going to be 80% of your annual spend?
Because while it might feel great for those two weeks in February, come August, when the cupboard is bare, and sales are lagging, your moment in the sun will be long forgotten by your customers, by your retailers, and definitely by your CFO.
This is a big-boy game, and the battlefield is littered with startups and upstarts who thought this would push them into the mainstream. Yes?
Ok, you’ve carved out the $7MM and have something for a summer fling, too.
But:
2. Do you have the budget to do this right?
Because the cost of inventory for the :30 is just the beginning.
That kick-ass creative probably has a kick-ass production and talent cost to go along with it. And you better not just be thinking of airing it ONCE. You really should be kicking off a months-long campaign. Or culminating one.
Not to mention all the amplification and social surround you need to do in the weeks leading up to SB.
Half the value in the whole endeavor isn’t during the game itself but in all the hype and attention you will draft off into leading up to the prominent spot airing. And that takes money.
But that’s not all:
3. Your creative better be good.
Damn good.
There’s nothing sadder than the brand manager who argued until they were blue in the face to get approval to buy this spot when they see the Ad Tracker and their baby is bouncing on the bottom of the list.
The downside of getting roasted is almost argument enough to sit this one out.
But, say you have a real winner with animals/celebs/explosions/potty humor.
Ok, then you need to consider:
4. Know what success is.
Ensure all the stakeholders are clear on what this should do. Drive site visits? Sales? Social buzz?
Agree on the metrics and benchmarks beforehand and have a plan for how you will quantify it.
And get it in writing.
People have a funny tendency to forget/misremember what was discussed when they approved something like this, and you don’t want to be backtracking to try and justify why it was a good idea.
OK, got that out of the way. If you checked all the boxes, have at it.
Strap in because the upside is real and tangible.
A. The massive reach surpasses 4x anything else that will air this year.
B. The audience engagement with the ads is off the charts. Heck, half the audience treats the ad breaks as the programming.
C. Unlike aggregating reach on YouTube or CTV, you’re not only reaching all these people simultaneously, but they all know that everyone sees it simultaneously.
It’s one of the few communal experiences left in a fragmented media landscape.
D. Just being there marks you as a member of an exclusive club; linear game inventory is finite, and only a few dozen advertisers are in the club.
E. It truly is the single greatest platform with which to launch something big.
To all of you out there reading this who have already pulled the trigger and whose entire existences for the last six weeks have been consumed with making sure the spot gets approved by CBS and the NFL, that the tickets for your CEO are in a part of Allegiant stadium worthy of their tuchus, that the position you secured in the game format is the optimal moment to launch the influencer army, etc., etc., I wish you well.
You can sleep on Monday, and then you have at least four months until it starts all over again.
Brett
YO
"What-in-Taylor-Swift is going on?... The sales guy is telling us it is NOT worth the investment in The Super Bowl? Am I taking crazy pills?!"
Yes, that is precisely what I am saying; I am confident in my assessment that it is not worth it. It is way too risky – especially for the reward you are expecting.
Let's dive in, shall we?
I'm sure you were expecting to read about how marketers need to be more tactical with their investments, using all kinds of AdTech jargon. But let's be real; we can all get lost in the sea of tech word vomit we all know and love.
No, this ain't that.
Yeah, all the mumbo-jumbo from the Tech sector's p.o.v is on 🎯 - but let me give you other reasons that should give you pause.
The Super Bowl is the most-watched telecast in North America annually by a considerable margin. True.
No other advertising medium can deliver as much reach in just 30 seconds. Again, true.
The world deserves to see the full extent of our creativity, and there's no better platform to display it than The Super Bowl. Also, true.
Before you drop $7 Million this year and by 2026, projections predict $10 Million for a :30, let's peel back the investment.
Let me start with this question for all the Marketers out there.
Are you willing to part with an all-in cost from production-talent-fees-inventory of an average of $35 Million in exchange for a 20% success rate?
Yo, what do you mean, a 20% success rate?
We all know the cardinal sin for marketers - being irrelevant. Well, 20% is the success rate since 2000 for brand retention within five days after The Super Bowl. (source: eMarketer)
In other words, after all the time and money you spent on getting into The Big Game, you have an 80% probability of being forgotten within a week. Like Keyser Soze, by Friday after the game, "Poof. It's gone."
But Yo, I have a launch {insert movie or auto} - I need to reach everyone for awareness, and I can do it easily with The Super Bowl.
The data does not change.
Guess how many of the top 10 grossing films of 2023 aired a spot in the Super Bowl in 2023?
(hint: I gave you a clue earlier)
OK, you don't have to guess.
Two.
20%.
Universal's "Super Mario" and Disney's "Guardian's of The Galaxy".
Ahhh whatever Yo, movies-schmoovies, I am an Auto and have a big launch next year!
BIG, I tell ya!!
Sure. Let's do Auto.
Let's zoom out, take the last two years... 16 auto spots were purchased ~ 10 of them were for EVs.
(back of the napkin math and that comes to $😳. )
Break it down for me Yo: OK, out of the top 10 - no, top 15 EVs sold in North America in 2023, how many aired a spot in the Super Bowl in '22 & '23? 🤔
Trick question.
It is not 20%.
It is 0%.
In fact, I'll do you one better - none of North America's top 15 best-selling electric vehicles have never appeared during the Super Bowl?
Never.
In 2023 - between Auto, Entertainment and Beverage roughly $200 Million was spent within 4 hours to air their big spots.
Barbie had an "8-to-80" target audience that would have benefited from the extensive reach The Super Bowl provided Warner Bros. A perfect blanket opportunity to hit all ages and demos, but they bypassed the game, and we all know what happened with that phenom.
AHHA, GOT YOU, Yo! ERROUNEOUS!
Barbie was released in the summer – it makes total sense that WB did not air in The Super Bowl. Sucker!
Then explain to me what was Indiana Jones, Fast X and The Flash doing in the game? I'll wait.
No, I won't wait...gonna keep going.
(I can do another dissertation that both Super Mario and Guardians would have been just fine without airing in the Super Bowl, but I digress).
Hold up Yo, then explain to me you snarky sob, why, for the last gazillion years, Anheuser Busch, Miller Coors, etc, have dropped major dough for multiple spots in the game.
Obviously, they know something you don't.
A little inside-football for ya. They are not buying these spots for YOU to drink beer.
They are buying it for their bottlers and distributors.
This one is for all the salespeople out there - talk about your air cover from corporate, right?
Imagine walking into Wegmans looking for better shelf space, and as a salesperson, you have the commitment from Daddy-Beer that they invested this ridiculous amount of money to support their brand.
I mean, it is the best deck anyone can ever present. Super Bowl is being used here for trade marketing; not to sell product.
(My partner Brett taught me that during our Dr Pepper negotiations with College Football).
Shut up, Yo. I had enough of your shit. I have this client who just started their company. They are consumer-facing, no wait they might be B2B- whatever, I just need everyone to know ASAP who they are and what they are about!
Like, RIGHT NOW!
OK, step into my way-back machine.
Prompt (v.6): You are a Wall Street Media Analyst. You have been tasked to analyze the following criteria related to the success and failure of a Startup Business. You are to strip any context of the cultural importance of the event and draw a line from A) Purchased a commercial in The Super Bowl to B) Still operating as a business within 12 months of airing the spot—criteria: Timeframe 2000 to 2023. A startup is defined by 1) being less than five years old, 2) having no corporate parent, and 3) relying on seed/angel funding. {Shortened for publication)
Output: The Super Bowl is a high-cost, high-exposure brand advertising opportunity. However, startups that rely on external funding face risks in allocating significant capital to such campaigns. Studies show that less than 20% of new firms that lack a corporate parent and have obtained outside financing have succeeded in generating positive cash flow within one fiscal year after their Super Bowl ad aired. Conventional product or service plays failed to translate momentary attention into sustained sales momentum. {Shortened for publication)
There is that 20% number again. It's annoying when Yo is right, aint it?
Since the game is in Vegas, let's put it in gambling terms: Would you sit down and drop significant money if I told you that you have an 80% chance of losing it?
With those odds, just put the $7 Million on black. You have MUCH better odds of getting an ROI.
OK, Mr. Know-It-All, then where should I put all this money if not for the Super Bowl? I must and have to do something, right?
Yes, you do.
But what do you think this is, a charity?
Hit the Contact button and get in touch with us.
Yo
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